By 2030, the population of Florida will have surpassed New York as the nation's third largest, the Census Bureau said Thursday.

Estimates show a gain of 11 million residents over the next 25 years. The latest census predictions show Florida's current population of 17.5 million approaching 20 million by 2010 and topping 21 million five years later.

About 40 percent of the projected growth will come from people 65 and older. The elderly will comprise 27.1 percent of Florida's population in 2030 - up from 17.6 percent in 2000. Florida will be one of 10 states where retirees will outnumber schoolchildren.

In 2000, children outnumbered people 65 and older in Florida by 840,000. But by 2030, there will be 2 million more older people than children younger than 18. Florida's youth will drop from 23 percent of the population to 20 percent.

Florida also will be among America's fastest-growing states, behind Nevada and Arizona. Florida's growth rate of 79.5 percent is nearly three times higher than that of the nation as a whole.

In the new census projections, Michigan and New Jersey drop out of the top 10 - replaced by North Carolina and Arizona. The figures show the continuing shift in the nation's population from the North and Midwest to the South and West.

Nearly two-thirds of the country will live in the South and West by 2030. The North and Midwest will see their share of the population decline from 42 percent to 35 percent from 2000 to 2030.

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